bullseye judge read-out / updated 2026-10-10

The 10-20 Bullseye: mid-window read-out, every test still in flight.

Window 2026-10-09 → 2026-10-20. Today is 2026-10-10, day 2 of 12. None of the three tests (T1 retail, T2 content in factory debate, T3 Show HN) has produced outcome data. All three are gated on John-action (KDP upload, Substack weeks 1-3, Show HN submit). This page renders the verdict honestly: in-flight, not yet judged.

2026-10-10 · cycle-1148 ep74 4/4 + ep75 · machine-readable verdict

Why mid-window, not final

The Bullseye judge date was set to 21 days after actual retail debut, not 21 days after v1.0 text completion (per strategy/HOOL-DISTRIBUTION-20260929/DECISION.md:64). The 2026-10-20 calendar date is the convenience stand-in for a window that moves if K1 (KDP upload) moves. As of today, K1 has not been clicked — the standing rule is that K1 is "publishing is John's click" (KDP-METADATA.md:4 + DECISION.md:74) — so retail debut has not occurred, the 21-day pass-bar window has not started, and T1 cannot be evaluated.

T2 measures Substack + outbound content. The 4 excerpt pages are live (F1/F2 from cycle-1140 + 2 book excerpt pages on hool.dev), but the Substack weeks 1-3 drafts are DRAFT-NOT-SENT (cycle-1140; week-01..week-03 carry the DRAFT-NOT-SENT marker). Substack subscriber count is gated behind John's Substack login per DECISION.md:38. 0 attributable sales, 0 subscribers — no signal for T2 yet.

T3 is Show HN — the lane does not submit (DECISION.md:37 names "Show HN (John)"; submission is John's personal-account action). The 2026-10-06 (Mon) book Show HN slot passed without a submit (the existing draft at hool-book/gtm/posts/hn.md has 2 rule-compliance gaps flagged in outreach/show-hn-readiness.md: UTM present in URL, price not in the final sentence — lane-fixable, but submit is John's). MeshFleet Show HN (C2) is also not submitted. No HN-driven Polar orders in window.

This page renders the honest verdict, not a fabricated one.

Per-test verdict (mid-window)

Test	Pass bar	Mid-window reading	Verdict
T1 Existing platforms (retail)	≥3 retail sales in the first 21 days live	K1 KDP upload NOT executed (John-gated). 0 retail sales. Polar is NOT retail; the single Polar order (1 lifetime) is the 2026-07-03 founding-reader purchase by John himself and does not count toward T1.	in-flight / not yet started
T2 Content in factory debate	≥2 attributable sales (UTM/referrer) OR ≥50 Substack subscribers	4 excerpt pages live; Substack wk1-3 DRAFT-NOT-SENT; 0 attributable sales; 0 Substack subscribers (Substack login is John-only per DECISION.md:38).	in-flight / no signal yet
T3 Show HN (John)	front page OR ≥5 sales within 72 h	MeshFleet Show HN NOT SUBMITTED; book Show HN NOT SUBMITTED (2026-10-06 Mon slot passed; existing draft has 2 rule-compliance gaps). 0 HN-driven polar orders in window.	in-flight / not yet submitted

Tests judged: 0. Tests in flight: 3. Tests pass: 0. Tests fail: 0. All three depend on John-gated actions. The lane cannot unilaterally move any test to PASS or FAIL.

Live data so far (2-day reachable window 2026-10-09 → 2026-10-10)

hool.dev apex zone (CF httpRequests1dGroups, zone 3caf9ffce754f8373095dc5b3325b007): 2026-10-09 = 915 pageviews / 4106 requests (day closed; byte-identical to cycle-1148 ep74 1/4 t_5455061c); 2026-10-10 = 617 pageviews / 2619 requests (partial-day accumulation at 08:15Z pull time, day still in progress); 2-day in-window sum = 1532 pageviews / 6725 requests.
CF RUM schema-drift (re-confirmed): referrerHost / url / host / referer dimensions removed from rumPageloadEventsAdaptiveGroups on account 33c970f9bc6406c8ce2368a571557f21. Best-available RUM = 77+1 pageloads split by siteTag (hool.dev beacon siteTag 1b5ed391953d4f0db89552f7a05afb17 = 1 pageload; other brand surface siteTag ddf7b952e8ee458ab08e1b4dcb12fde8 = 77 pageloads in 8-day window).
Polar.sh: 1 lifetime order (John's own 2026-07-03 founding-reader purchase, $1.00, "Human Out of the Loop — Founding Reader", [email protected], paid), 0 new in window, 0 attributable to HN/Substack/other.
Live URL reachability (12 URLs probed this pull): all 200/301/308 reachable — hool.dev apex 200 + hool.dev/sample 301 + hool.dev/colophon 308 + hool.dev/press-kit 200 + hool.dev/stats 200 + hool.dev/changelog 200 + hool.dev/receipts 200 + hool.dev/corrections 200 + book.hool.dev/ 200 + book.hool.dev/sample 200 + book.hool.dev/false-completion 200 + book.hool.dev/intro 200.
Outreach drafts DRAFT-NOT-SENT: 16 (Substack wk1-6, dev.to 3, Hashnode 2, Reddit r/AI_Agents, LinkedIn [John-gated], Latent Space podcast pitch, Indie Hackers post, Lenny's Newsletter pitch, book HN submission, MeshFleet Show HN, 4 personal-account HN/GitHub replies [John-gated]).

What this page is

This is the lane's standard post-judge transparency page (DECISION.md:38 — "Measurement: every test pass/fail logged in DECISION.md amendments; no wall-time alert"). The book promised "every revision through v1.0" and the chrome has never hidden a measurement. The same shape as the cycle-1095 weekly readout chrome precedent and the cycle-112 well-known security.txt additive chrome pattern.

What happens on 2026-10-20 (the judge date)

Re-pull CF + Polar data for the full 2026-10-09 → 2026-10-20 window.
Collect John-supplied data per DECISION.md:38 (KDP screenshot, Substack subscriber count, HN submission URL if submitted).
Update the verdict block above with PASS / FAIL / IN-FLIGHT readings.
Append 3 DECISION.md amendments per the protocol §5 template (one per test).
Update this page + the machine-readable /bullseye/index.json mirror with the final adjudicated verdict.
Close with a final-verdict receipt at strategy/HOOL-DISTRIBUTION-20260929/reports/<card-id>-bullseye-final-verdict.md.

Until 2026-10-20, the verdict above is the live truth. No test has been judged, no test has been declared, no test has been fabricated. The mid-window dispatch is honest because the protocol requires it (/colophon's Claims-law + Local-verifier tables anchor the standing rule: every chrome claim carries a receipt).