{
  "generated_at": "2026-10-10T08:30Z",
  "source_doc_path": "/Users/johnwhitman/AI/strategy/HOOL-DISTRIBUTION-20260929/reports/bullseye-judge-readout-2026-10-20.md",
  "source_doc_sha": null,
  "source_doc_sha_note": "Strategy source artifact lives in the shared ai-conductor monorepo at /Users/johnwhitman/AI per the standing rule (allowlists !/strategy/**). It is a working-tree edit, not committed; no SHA-256 is computed. The published mirror at https://hool.dev/bullseye/index.json is the authoritative machine-readable verdict; the strategy file is the human-readable working source.",
  "source_protocol": "/Users/johnwhitman/AI/strategy/HOOL-DISTRIBUTION-20260929/10-bullseye-measurement-protocol.md",
  "source_decision": "/Users/johnwhitman/AI/strategy/HOOL-DISTRIBUTION-20260929/DECISION.md",
  "decision_authority_lines": "32-38 (Bullseye test scope + measurement language) + 64 (judge-date-moves-to-21-days-after-retail-debut)",
  "window": {
    "start": "2026-10-09",
    "end": "2026-10-20",
    "mid_window_dispatch": true,
    "mid_window_read_out_at": "2026-10-10",
    "days_remaining_at_read_out": 10,
    "source": "strategy/HOOL-DISTRIBUTION-20260929/10-bullseye-measurement-protocol.md §1"
  },
  "verdict": {
    "T1": {
      "label": "Existing platforms (retail)",
      "test": "Kindle $12.99 live + D2D wide",
      "pass_bar": ">=3 retail sales in the first 21 days live",
      "mid_window_reading": "K1 KDP upload NOT executed (John-gated); no retail debut; 0 retail sales (Polar is NOT retail; 1 Polar order = founding-reader purchase)",
      "verdict": "in-flight / not yet started",
      "receipt_handle": null,
      "source": "DECISION.md:35 + DECISION.md:74 (K1 = John's click) + KDP-METADATA.md:4"
    },
    "T2": {
      "label": "Content in the factory debate (Substack + outbound content)",
      "test": "4 excerpt pages + Substack weeks 1-3 + capped GitHub replies + John's optional HN comments",
      "pass_bar": ">=2 direct sales attributable (UTM/referrer) OR >=50 Substack subscribers",
      "mid_window_reading": "4 excerpt pages live; Substack wk1-3 DRAFT-NOT-SENT; 0 attributable sales; 0 Substack subscribers (Substack login is John-only per DECISION.md:38)",
      "verdict": "in-flight / no signal yet",
      "receipt_handle": null,
      "source": "DECISION.md:36 + DECISION.md:38"
    },
    "T3": {
      "label": "Show HN (John)",
      "test": "MeshFleet Show HN this week (C2) + book Show HN 2026-10-06 (submit /sample)",
      "pass_bar": "front page OR >=5 sales within 72 h",
      "mid_window_reading": "MeshFleet Show HN NOT SUBMITTED; book Show HN NOT SUBMITTED (2026-10-06 Mon slot passed; outreach/show-hn-readiness.md flagged 2 rule-compliance gaps in the existing draft at hool-book/gtm/posts/hn.md: UTM present in URL (violates no-UTM rule) + price not in final sentence (violates strict placement rule); lane-fixable but submit is John's); HN-driven polar orders = 0",
      "verdict": "in-flight / not yet submitted",
      "receipt_handle": null,
      "source": "DECISION.md:37 + outreach/show-hn-readiness.md"
    }
  },
  "summary": {
    "tests_judged": 0,
    "tests_in_flight": 3,
    "tests_pass": 0,
    "tests_fail": 0,
    "tests_in_flight_final_reason": "All three depend on John-gated actions (KDP upload K1, Substack posts, Show HN submit). The lane cannot unilaterally move any test to PASS or FAIL."
  },
  "live_data_mid_window": {
    "cf_httpRequests1dGroups_hool_dev_apex_3caf9ffce754f8373095dc5b3325b007": {
      "2026-10-09": {"pageviews": 915, "requests": 4106, "note": "day closed; byte-identical to cycle-1148 ep74 1/4 t_5455061c Row 963"},
      "2026-10-10": {"pageviews": 617, "requests": 2619, "note": "partial-day accumulation at 08:15Z pull time; day still in progress"},
      "in_window_sum": {"pageviews": 1532, "requests": 6725}
    },
    "cf_rum_schema_drift_re_confirmed": true,
    "cf_rum_site_tag_pageloads": {
      "siteTag_1b5ed391953d4f0db89552f7a05afb17_hool_dev_beacon": 1,
      "siteTag_ddf7b952e8ee458ab08e1b4dcb12fde8_other_brand_surface": 77
    },
    "polar_sh_lifetime_orders": 1,
    "polar_sh_in_window_orders": 0,
    "polar_sh_attributed_orders_in_window": {"hn": 0, "substack": 0, "other": 0},
    "live_urls_reachable_count": "12/12 (200/301/308 mix)"
  },
  "outreach_drafts_draft_not_sent_count": 16,
  "next_step": "10-20 judge pass (future card): re-pull CF + Polar for full window; collect John-supplied data per DECISION.md:38 (KDP screenshot + Substack subscriber count + HN submission URL if submitted); update verdict block with PASS/FAIL/IN-FLIGHT readings; append 3 DECISION.md amendments per protocol §5 template; update chrome page at hool.dev/bullseye/. Until then, this file is the live truth.",
  "cycle": "cycle-1148",
  "episode": "cycle-1148 ep75 + ep74 4/4 chrome publication step",
  "episodes_referenced": [
    "cycle-1148 ep74 1/4 t_5455061c (Row 963, 10-13 weekly scoreboard read-out)",
    "cycle-1148 ep75 t_87842b2c (Row 964, 10-20 Bullseye CONSOLIDATED mid-window read-out)",
    "cycle-1148 ep74 4/4 t_eb18d357 (chrome publication step = this card)"
  ],
  "card_id": "t_eb18d357"
}